AI Horizon Scanning -- White Paper p3395, IEEE-SA. Part III: Technology Watch: a selection of key developments, emerging technologies, and industry trends in Artificial Intelligence
George Tambouratzis, Marina Cortês, Andrew R. Liddle
TL;DR
This horizon-scanning white paper assesses the current AI landscape as of late 2024 to inform IEEE‑SA's p3395 safeguards. It combines economy-driven trend analysis, hardware/product release trajectories, collaboration dynamics, and energy considerations to map risks, opportunities, and regulatory needs. The work highlights the concentration of hardware leadership (notably NVIDIA), the rapid expansion of pre-trained model access with mixed licensing, and the substantial energy implications of AI at scale, including moves toward nuclear-powered data centers. Together, these insights provide a structured, practical snapshot to guide standards development, governance, and responsible deployment in a rapidly evolving field.
Abstract
Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies are in a phase of unprecedented rapid development following the landmark release of Chat-GPT, which brought the phenomenon to wide public attention. As the deployment of AI products rises geometrically, considerable attention is being given to the threats and opportunities that AI technologies offer, and to the need for regulatory and standards initiatives to ensure that use of the technology aligns with societal needs and generates broad benefits while mitigating risks and threats. This manuscript is the third of a series of White Papers informing the development of IEEE-SA's p3995 {\it `Standard for the Implementation of Safeguards, Controls, and Preventive Techniques for Artificial Intelligence Models'} \cite{P3395}, Chair Marina Cortês. This part focuses on assessing calmly and objectively, as far as is possible, the current state of Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology development and identifying predominant trends, prospects, and ensuing risks. It necessarily forms a snapshot of the current instant of a rapidly-evolving landscape, with new products and innovations emerging continuously. While our main focus is on software and hardware developments and their corporate context, we also briefly review progress on robotics within the AI context and describe some implications of the substantial and growing AI energy demand.