Optimal screening strategies in the control of an infectious disease: a case of the COVID-19 in a population with age structure

Abstract

After the COVID-19 pandemic, we saw an increase in demand for epidemiological mathematical models. The goal of this work is to study the optimal control for an age-structured model as a strategy of quarantine of infected people, which is done via Pontryagin's maximum principle. Since quarantine campaigns are not just a matter of public health, also posing economic challenges, the optimal control problem does not simply minimize the number of infected individuals. Instead, it jointly minimizes this number and the economic costs associated to the campaigns, providing data that can help authorities make decisions when dealing with epidemics. The controls are the quarantine entrance parameters, which are numerically calculated for different lengths of isolation. The best strategies gives a calendar that indicates when the isolation measures can be relaxed, and the consequences of a delay in the start of the quarantine are analyzed by presenting the reduction in the number of deaths for the strategy with optimal control compared to a no-quarantine landscape.

Figures (7)

• Figure 1: Compartment diagram of the model.
• Figure 2: The optimal controls for different quarantine lengths.
• Figure 3: Curves of infections for the optimal control in different quarantine lengths.
• Figure 4: Curve of infections without quarantine for 120 days.
• Figure 5: Optimal control with 10-day delay at the start of the quarantine.