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Governing dual-use technologies: Case studies of international security agreements and lessons for AI governance

Akash R. Wasil, Peter Barnett, Michael Gerovitch, Roman Hauksson, Tom Reed, Jack William Miller

TL;DR

The importance of robust verification methods, strategies for balancing power between nations, mechanisms for adapting to rapid technological change, approaches to managing trade-offs between transparency and security, incentives for participation, and effective enforcement mechanisms are discussed.

Abstract

International AI governance agreements and institutions may play an important role in reducing global security risks from advanced AI. To inform the design of such agreements and institutions, we conducted case studies of historical and contemporary international security agreements. We focused specifically on those arrangements around dual-use technologies, examining agreements in nuclear security, chemical weapons, biosecurity, and export controls. For each agreement, we examined four key areas: (a) purpose, (b) core powers, (c) governance structure, and (d) instances of non-compliance. From these case studies, we extracted lessons for the design of international AI agreements and governance institutions. We discuss the importance of robust verification methods, strategies for balancing power between nations, mechanisms for adapting to rapid technological change, approaches to managing trade-offs between transparency and security, incentives for participation, and effective enforcement mechanisms.

Governing dual-use technologies: Case studies of international security agreements and lessons for AI governance

TL;DR

The importance of robust verification methods, strategies for balancing power between nations, mechanisms for adapting to rapid technological change, approaches to managing trade-offs between transparency and security, incentives for participation, and effective enforcement mechanisms are discussed.

Abstract

International AI governance agreements and institutions may play an important role in reducing global security risks from advanced AI. To inform the design of such agreements and institutions, we conducted case studies of historical and contemporary international security agreements. We focused specifically on those arrangements around dual-use technologies, examining agreements in nuclear security, chemical weapons, biosecurity, and export controls. For each agreement, we examined four key areas: (a) purpose, (b) core powers, (c) governance structure, and (d) instances of non-compliance. From these case studies, we extracted lessons for the design of international AI agreements and governance institutions. We discuss the importance of robust verification methods, strategies for balancing power between nations, mechanisms for adapting to rapid technological change, approaches to managing trade-offs between transparency and security, incentives for participation, and effective enforcement mechanisms.
Paper Structure (10 sections, 5 figures)

This paper contains 10 sections, 5 figures.

Table of Contents

  1. Executive Summary
  2. Future work
  3. Introduction
  4. Case studies of international agreements
  5. IAEA
  6. START Treaties
  7. The Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW)
  8. Wassenaar Arrangement
  9. Biological Weapons Convention
  10. Lessons learned

Figures (5)

  • Figure 1: The governance structure of the IAEA.
  • Figure 2: The governance structure of the START treaties.
  • Figure 3: The governance structure of the chemical weapons convention. This figure is based on Figure 1 in dorn1995compliance, originally sourced from paul1990disarmament.
  • Figure 4: The governance structure of the Wassenaar Arrangement
  • Figure 5: The governance structure of the Biological Weapons Convention.