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Modeling Urban Transport Choices: Incorporating Sociocultural Aspects

Kathleen Salazar-Serna, Lorena Cadavid, Carlos J. Franco

TL;DR

This study addresses how sociocultural factors shape urban commuters' mode choices in developing countries where motorcycles are prevalent. It develops an agent-based simulation parameterized by Cali, Colombia data and informed by multinomial (MNL/MNP) models to identify drivers such as cost, time, safety, comfort, and personal security, with weights varying by socioeconomic status. The model is validated against real-world patterns and Bass diffusion forecasts, and used to evaluate policy scenarios including fare-free transit, increased service frequency, and enhanced security, both individually and in combination. Findings indicate modest overall gains from single policies and highlight the importance of multi-factor approaches to address diverse user preferences, offering a replicable framework for policy analysis in similar urban contexts and a basis for extending insights to other developing cities.

Abstract

This paper introduces an agent-based simulation model aimed at understanding urban commuters mode choices and evaluating the impacts of transport policies to promote sustainable mobility. Crafted for developing countries, where utilitarian travel heavily relies on motorcycles, the model integrates sociocultural factors that influence transport behavior. Multinomial models and inferential statistics applied to survey data from Cali, Colombia, inform the model, revealing significant influences of sociodemographic factors and travel attributes on mode choice. Findings highlight the importance of cost, time, safety, comfort, and personal security, with disparities across socioeconomic groups. Policy simulations demonstrate positive responses to interventions like free public transportation, increased bus frequency, and enhanced security, yet with modest shifts in mode choice. Multifaceted policy approaches are deemed more effective, addressing diverse user preferences. Outputs can be extended to cities with similar sociocultural characteristics and transport dynamics. The methodology applied in this work can be replicated for other territories.

Modeling Urban Transport Choices: Incorporating Sociocultural Aspects

TL;DR

This study addresses how sociocultural factors shape urban commuters' mode choices in developing countries where motorcycles are prevalent. It develops an agent-based simulation parameterized by Cali, Colombia data and informed by multinomial (MNL/MNP) models to identify drivers such as cost, time, safety, comfort, and personal security, with weights varying by socioeconomic status. The model is validated against real-world patterns and Bass diffusion forecasts, and used to evaluate policy scenarios including fare-free transit, increased service frequency, and enhanced security, both individually and in combination. Findings indicate modest overall gains from single policies and highlight the importance of multi-factor approaches to address diverse user preferences, offering a replicable framework for policy analysis in similar urban contexts and a basis for extending insights to other developing cities.

Abstract

This paper introduces an agent-based simulation model aimed at understanding urban commuters mode choices and evaluating the impacts of transport policies to promote sustainable mobility. Crafted for developing countries, where utilitarian travel heavily relies on motorcycles, the model integrates sociocultural factors that influence transport behavior. Multinomial models and inferential statistics applied to survey data from Cali, Colombia, inform the model, revealing significant influences of sociodemographic factors and travel attributes on mode choice. Findings highlight the importance of cost, time, safety, comfort, and personal security, with disparities across socioeconomic groups. Policy simulations demonstrate positive responses to interventions like free public transportation, increased bus frequency, and enhanced security, yet with modest shifts in mode choice. Multifaceted policy approaches are deemed more effective, addressing diverse user preferences. Outputs can be extended to cities with similar sociocultural characteristics and transport dynamics. The methodology applied in this work can be replicated for other territories.
Paper Structure (12 sections, 7 figures, 1 table)

This paper contains 12 sections, 7 figures, 1 table.

Table of Contents

  1. INTRODUCTION
  2. METHODS
  3. Agent-based simulation model
  4. Adapting the simulation model to the context and finding information to parameterize it
  5. Identifying the factors influencing the mode choice
  6. Simulation experiments
  7. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
  8. Influencing factors identified with the discrete choice models
  9. Transport attributes perceptions and differences by users' groups
  10. Policy analysis
  11. CONCLUSIONS
  12. SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIALS

Figures (7)

  • Figure 1: Strategies followed by agents to make decisions. $S_t =$ Satisfaction at time step t, $U_t =$ Uncertainty at time step t
  • Figure 2: Comparison of transport user distribution: ABM simulation vs. real data
  • Figure 3: Comparison of transport user distribution: Bass model forecast vs. ABM simulation
  • Figure 4: Average importance level for transport attributes by socioeconomic group. Calculations based on the survey (ac.cost = acquisition cost, op.cost= operating cost).
  • Figure 5: (A) Simulation results for the base case scenario (mot = motorcycle, car= private car, pub = public transit). (B) Groups of decision-makers categorized by strategy employed.
  • ...and 2 more figures