Exploring incentive strategies and predicting development trends for new energy vehicles

TL;DR

This paper introduces an Expectation Supply-Demand Game ($ESDG$) that couples manufacturers and consumers in a dynamic evolutionary framework, incorporating a consumer decision process with post-purchase feedback and a Min-Max normalization pre-processing step to improve numerical accuracy. The authors derive replicator dynamics for both sides, analyze stability with and without feedback, and demonstrate that feedback induces a stable Evolutionary Stabilisation Strategy ($ESS$) while normalization yields smoother, more realistic convergence. Key findings show that excessive advertising can trigger consumer boredom, while battery payout and replacement insurance can accelerate NEV development; optimal calibration around $r\approx 6$ is suggested. Forecasts based on calibrated parameters indicate that China could reach $37.2\%$ NEV production and $36.9\%$ NEV sales in 2024, with longer-term shares stabilising near mid-$30\%$ levels, underscoring the practical value of insurance-based incentives over aggressive marketing in sustaining NEV growth.

Abstract

To facilitate new energy vehicles (NEVs), we construct a game model between vehicle manufacturers and consumers to explore their interactions. In the model, we propose the Expectation Supply-Demand Game (ESDG), construct the consumer purchasing decision-making process with feedback and analyse the stability of the system under different feedback factors. We processes the data of the model in numerical simulation through Min-Max normalisation and predicts the development of NEVs. The results show that: (1) An evolutionary stabilisation strategy (ESS) emerges in the evolutionary game model with the introduction of feedback. (2) The Min-Max normalisation method is conducive to the accuracy of the model. (3) Excessive advertising and marketing may cause consumer boredom. (4) The establishment of an appropriate battery compensation and replacement insurance is conducive to the development of NEVs. (5) The production and sales ratio of China's NEVs is predicted to reach 37.2\% and 36.9\% respectively in 2024.

Figures (13)

• Figure 1: Consumer decision-making process with feedback for NEVs.
• Figure 2: System dynamics model without feedback.
• Figure 3: System dynamics model with feedback.
• Figure 4: The phase portrait of the vehicle manufacturer.
• Figure 5: The phase portrait of the customer.