On Large Language Models in National Security Applications

TL;DR

The paper analyzes how large language models can transform national security operations by accelerating information processing and decision support while mitigating high-stakes risks. It advocates integrating LLMs with decision-theoretic and Bayesian reasoning to improve reliability, and surveys a broad landscape of DoD, allied, and adversarial uses, with examples such as TF Lima, USAF wargaming, and CHUCK. It emphasizes cautious, governance-driven deployment—favoring non-autonomous, information-task roles and requiring robust safeguards, interpretability, and countermeasures against disinformation and cyber threats. The work highlights the practical significance of aligning LLM capabilities with national security objectives through collaboration, evaluation, and responsible AI practices.

Abstract

The overwhelming success of GPT-4 in early 2023 highlighted the transformative potential of large language models (LLMs) across various sectors, including national security. This article explores the implications of LLM integration within national security contexts, analyzing their potential to revolutionize information processing, decision-making, and operational efficiency. Whereas LLMs offer substantial benefits, such as automating tasks and enhancing data analysis, they also pose significant risks, including hallucinations, data privacy concerns, and vulnerability to adversarial attacks. Through their coupling with decision-theoretic principles and Bayesian reasoning, LLMs can significantly improve decision-making processes within national security organizations. Namely, LLMs can facilitate the transition from data to actionable decisions, enabling decision-makers to quickly receive and distill available information with less manpower. Current applications within the US Department of Defense and beyond are explored, e.g., the USAF's use of LLMs for wargaming and automatic summarization, that illustrate their potential to streamline operations and support decision-making. However, these applications necessitate rigorous safeguards to ensure accuracy and reliability. The broader implications of LLM integration extend to strategic planning, international relations, and the broader geopolitical landscape, with adversarial nations leveraging LLMs for disinformation and cyber operations, emphasizing the need for robust countermeasures. Despite exhibiting "sparks" of artificial general intelligence, LLMs are best suited for supporting roles rather than leading strategic decisions. Their use in training and wargaming can provide valuable insights and personalized learning experiences for military personnel, thereby improving operational readiness.