Occupation Life Cycle
Lan Chen, Yufei Ji, Xichen Yao, Hengshu Zhu
TL;DR
This paper introduces the Occupation Life Cycle (OLC) framework to study how occupations evolve within the intertwined trajectories of industry and technology life cycles. It defines five stages (growth, peak, fluctuation, maturity, decline) and assigns occupations to stages using annual job-posting data from a major Chinese platform (2018–2023), plus a rule-based trend analysis and visualization of growth rates. Findings show strong growth in AI-related and other digital-era occupations (e.g., ESG specialists, short video operators) while some traditional roles stabilize and AI technologies exhibit stage-diverse patterns (peak to maturity) but no observed declines. The work links OLC with ILC and TLC, offering practical guidance for policymakers, educators, and industry leaders on workforce planning in a rapidly changing economy.
Abstract
This paper explores the evolution of occupations within the context of industry and technology life cycles, highlighting the critical yet underexplored intersection between occupational trends and broader economic dynamics. Introducing the Occupation Life Cycle (OLC) model, we delineate five stages (i.e., growth, peak, fluctuation, maturity, and decline) to systematically explore the trajectory of occupations. Utilizing job posting data from one of China's largest recruitment platforms as a novel proxy, our study meticulously tracks the fluctuations and emerging trends in the labor market from 2018 to 2023. Through a detailed examination of representative roles, such as short video operators and data analysts, alongside emerging occupations within the artificial intelligence (AI) sector, our findings allocate occupations to specific life cycle stages, revealing insightful patterns of occupational development and decline. Our findings offer a unique perspective on the interplay between occupational evolution and economic factors, with a particular focus on the rapidly changing Chinese labor market. This study not only contributes to the theoretical understanding of OLC but also provides practical insights for policymakers, educators, and industry leaders facing the challenges of workforce planning and development in the face of technological advancement and market shifts.