Not as Simple as It Looked: Are We Concluding for Biased Arrest Practices?

TL;DR

The paper tackles the challenge of measuring racial disparities in arrest outcomes by highlighting the limitations of single-denominator baselines and emphasizing place-based and person-based factors. Using Cincinnati Police Department data from 2011–2015, a multi-source, two-level analysis with hierarchical linear modeling reveals that roughly 40% of variance in violent arrests occurs at the neighborhood level, and that neighborhood concentrated disadvantage can neutralize the predictive effect of race. A key contribution is showing that when accounting for differential crime involvement and neighborhood context, the apparent racial disparity diminishes, suggesting that place-based factors drive disproportionate arrests more than racial composition alone. The work advocates for comprehensive community development initiatives and robust racial disparity indices to better understand and address the root causes of arrest disparities, while urging caution in attributing disparities to unintentional racism without considering contextual factors.

Abstract

This study examines racial disparities in violent arrest outcomes, challenging conventional methods through a nuanced analysis of Cincinnati Police Department data. Acknowledging the intricate nature of racial disparity, the study categorizes explanations into types of place, types of person, and a combination of both, emphasizing the impact of neighborhood characteristics on crime distribution and police deployment. By introducing alternative scenarios, such as spuriousness, directed policing, and the geo-concentration of racial groups, the study underscores the complexity of racial disparity calculations. Employing a case study approach, the analysis of violent arrest outcomes reveals approximately 40 percent of the observed variation attributed to neighborhood-level characteristics, with concentrated disadvantage neutralizing the influence of race on arrest rates. Contrary to expectations, the study challenges the notion of unintentional racism, suggesting that neighborhood factors play a more significant role than the racial composition in explaining arrests. Policymakers are urged to focus on comprehensive community development initiatives addressing socioeconomic inequalities and support the development of robust racial disparity indices. The study calls for nuanced explorations of unintentional racism and future research addressing potential limitations, aiming to enhance understanding of the complexities surrounding racial disparities in arrests.