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Dynamic Vulnerability Criticality Calculator for Industrial Control Systems

Pavlos Cheimonidis, Kontantinos Rantos

TL;DR

This work tackles the growing cybersecurity risk of connected ICS/SCADA environments by introducing a dynamic vulnerability criticality calculator that produces a vulnerability-centric score tailored to a target environment. The method combines environment-aware CVSS exploitability (via modified metrics), attack-tree based aggregation of interdependent vulnerabilities, and a Fuzzy Cognitive Map to propagate and stabilize the overall vulnerability value along an attack path. The approach is validated through a detailed case study on a three-layer SCADA network and multiple mitigation scenarios, demonstrating that a combined strategy (path elimination plus targeted CVE removal) yields the largest reduction in PLC vulnerability. The study highlights practical insights for ICS security, especially regarding the relative effectiveness of security measures in complex topologies and legacy systems, and outlines plans to extend the model into a full dynamic risk framework with probabilistic threat components.

Abstract

The convergence of information and communication technologies has introduced new and advanced capabilities to Industrial Control Systems. However, concurrently, it has heightened their vulnerability to cyber attacks. Consequently, the imperative for new security methods has emerged as a critical need for these organizations to effectively identify and mitigate potential threats. This paper introduces an innovative approach by proposing a dynamic vulnerability criticality calculator. Our methodology encompasses the analysis of environmental topology and the effectiveness of deployed security mechanisms, coupled with the utilization of the Common Vulnerability Scoring System framework to adjust detected vulnerabilities based on the specific environment. Moreover, it evaluates the quantity of vulnerabilities and their interdependencies within each asset. Additionally, our approach integrates these factors into a comprehensive Fuzzy Cognitive Map model, incorporating attack paths to holistically assess the overall vulnerability score. To validate the efficacy of our proposed method, we present a relative case study alongside several modified scenarios, demonstrating its effectiveness in practical applications.

Dynamic Vulnerability Criticality Calculator for Industrial Control Systems

TL;DR

This work tackles the growing cybersecurity risk of connected ICS/SCADA environments by introducing a dynamic vulnerability criticality calculator that produces a vulnerability-centric score tailored to a target environment. The method combines environment-aware CVSS exploitability (via modified metrics), attack-tree based aggregation of interdependent vulnerabilities, and a Fuzzy Cognitive Map to propagate and stabilize the overall vulnerability value along an attack path. The approach is validated through a detailed case study on a three-layer SCADA network and multiple mitigation scenarios, demonstrating that a combined strategy (path elimination plus targeted CVE removal) yields the largest reduction in PLC vulnerability. The study highlights practical insights for ICS security, especially regarding the relative effectiveness of security measures in complex topologies and legacy systems, and outlines plans to extend the model into a full dynamic risk framework with probabilistic threat components.

Abstract

The convergence of information and communication technologies has introduced new and advanced capabilities to Industrial Control Systems. However, concurrently, it has heightened their vulnerability to cyber attacks. Consequently, the imperative for new security methods has emerged as a critical need for these organizations to effectively identify and mitigate potential threats. This paper introduces an innovative approach by proposing a dynamic vulnerability criticality calculator. Our methodology encompasses the analysis of environmental topology and the effectiveness of deployed security mechanisms, coupled with the utilization of the Common Vulnerability Scoring System framework to adjust detected vulnerabilities based on the specific environment. Moreover, it evaluates the quantity of vulnerabilities and their interdependencies within each asset. Additionally, our approach integrates these factors into a comprehensive Fuzzy Cognitive Map model, incorporating attack paths to holistically assess the overall vulnerability score. To validate the efficacy of our proposed method, we present a relative case study alongside several modified scenarios, demonstrating its effectiveness in practical applications.
Paper Structure (21 sections, 7 equations, 11 figures, 17 tables)

This paper contains 21 sections, 7 equations, 11 figures, 17 tables.

Table of Contents

  1. Introduction
  2. Background
  3. Related work
  4. The Proposed Vulnerability Criticality Assessment Methodology
  5. Adjustments to base scores - Step 1
  6. Attack Trees - Step 2
  7. Fuzzy Cognitive Maps - Step 3
  8. Case Study
  9. Sample SCADA network
  10. Methodology: Pre-Process - Vulnerability Analysis
  11. Methodology: Step 1 - Adjustments to base scores
  12. Methodology: Step 2 - Attack Trees
  13. Methodology: Step 3 - FCM
  14. Results
  15. Scenario A - Additional Firewall
  16. ...and 6 more sections

Figures (11)

  • Figure 1: Methodology's flowchart
  • Figure 2: Conjunctive and disjunctive relationships
  • Figure 3: Experimental environment
  • Figure 4: FCM model
  • Figure 5: PLC's value
  • ...and 6 more figures