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Cooperative Evolutionary Pressure and Diminishing Returns Might Explain the Fermi Paradox: On What Super-AIs Are Like

Daniel Vallstrom

TL;DR

This work frames morality as an evolutionary solution to cooperation problems across biological, social, and artificial domains, formalizing a concept of diminishing returns (DR) as growth slower than any root, i.e., $f\in DR$ iff $\forall n\, f\in O(x^{1/n})$, tying DR to feasibility notions like polynomial time $O(x^n)$. It argues that DR promotes cooperation by ensuring gains from additional resources level off, yielding predictions that wealth and safety increase cooperative behavior, with empirical and economic parallels such as logarithmic well-being gains and declining marginal utility. The paper extends these ideas to the Fermi paradox, suggesting that old societies and super-AIs may not engage in expansive, galaxy-wide colonization due to cooperative pressure and DR, and it presents a galaxy-colonization algorithm to illustrate feasible expansion limits. It further discusses how old societies could evolve into super-AIs, the role of environment and signaling in moral behavior, and how to detect super-AIs, ultimately advocating that ethics, culture, and feasible collaboration shape the long-term trajectory of intelligent life and its cosmic footprint.

Abstract

With an evolutionary approach, the basis of morality can be explained as adaptations to problems of cooperation. With 'evolution' taken in a broad sense, AIs that satisfy the conditions for evolution to apply will be subject to the same cooperative evolutionary pressure as biological entities. Here the adaptiveness of increased cooperation as material safety and wealth increase is discussed -- for humans, for other societies, and for AIs. Diminishing beneficial returns from increased access to material resources also suggests the possibility that, on the whole, there will be no incentive to for instance colonize entire galaxies, thus providing a possible explanation of the Fermi paradox, wondering where everybody is. It is further argued that old societies could engender, give way to, super-AIs, since it is likely that super-AIs are feasible, and fitter. Closing is an aside on effective ways for morals and goals to affect life and society, emphasizing environments, cultures, and laws, and exemplified by how to eat. 'Diminishing returns' is defined, as less than roots, the inverse of infeasibility. It is also noted that there can be no exponential colonization or reproduction, for mathematical reasons, as each entity takes up a certain amount of space. Appended are an algorithm for colonizing for example a galaxy quickly, models of the evolution of cooperation and fairness under diminishing returns, and software for simulating signaling development.

Cooperative Evolutionary Pressure and Diminishing Returns Might Explain the Fermi Paradox: On What Super-AIs Are Like

TL;DR

This work frames morality as an evolutionary solution to cooperation problems across biological, social, and artificial domains, formalizing a concept of diminishing returns (DR) as growth slower than any root, i.e., iff , tying DR to feasibility notions like polynomial time . It argues that DR promotes cooperation by ensuring gains from additional resources level off, yielding predictions that wealth and safety increase cooperative behavior, with empirical and economic parallels such as logarithmic well-being gains and declining marginal utility. The paper extends these ideas to the Fermi paradox, suggesting that old societies and super-AIs may not engage in expansive, galaxy-wide colonization due to cooperative pressure and DR, and it presents a galaxy-colonization algorithm to illustrate feasible expansion limits. It further discusses how old societies could evolve into super-AIs, the role of environment and signaling in moral behavior, and how to detect super-AIs, ultimately advocating that ethics, culture, and feasible collaboration shape the long-term trajectory of intelligent life and its cosmic footprint.

Abstract

With an evolutionary approach, the basis of morality can be explained as adaptations to problems of cooperation. With 'evolution' taken in a broad sense, AIs that satisfy the conditions for evolution to apply will be subject to the same cooperative evolutionary pressure as biological entities. Here the adaptiveness of increased cooperation as material safety and wealth increase is discussed -- for humans, for other societies, and for AIs. Diminishing beneficial returns from increased access to material resources also suggests the possibility that, on the whole, there will be no incentive to for instance colonize entire galaxies, thus providing a possible explanation of the Fermi paradox, wondering where everybody is. It is further argued that old societies could engender, give way to, super-AIs, since it is likely that super-AIs are feasible, and fitter. Closing is an aside on effective ways for morals and goals to affect life and society, emphasizing environments, cultures, and laws, and exemplified by how to eat. 'Diminishing returns' is defined, as less than roots, the inverse of infeasibility. It is also noted that there can be no exponential colonization or reproduction, for mathematical reasons, as each entity takes up a certain amount of space. Appended are an algorithm for colonizing for example a galaxy quickly, models of the evolution of cooperation and fairness under diminishing returns, and software for simulating signaling development.
Paper Structure (48 sections, 3 theorems, 1 equation, 17 figures, 1 algorithm)

This paper contains 48 sections, 3 theorems, 1 equation, 17 figures, 1 algorithm.

Table of Contents

  1. Morality
  2. Introduction: Morality as Evolutionary Solutions to Problems of Cooperation
  3. Evolution Facilitates Cooperation
  4. A Definition of Diminishing Returns as Less than Roots
  5. Feasibility
  6. A Definition of Diminishing Returns
  7. Diminishing Returns in Economics
  8. Definition Motive
  9. Diminishing Returns Facilitate Cooperation
  10. Predictions, Projections, Evidence
  11. The Speed of Evolution
  12. How to Have Morals and Goals Affect Life
  13. Diminishing Returns
  14. Creating Good Environments
  15. Feasibility Facilitates Cooperation
  16. ...and 33 more sections

Key Result

Theorem 1.2

If $f\in DR$, and $g\in O(x^k)$, then $g\circ f \in DR$.

Figures (17)

  • Figure 1: $\ln x$, $\ln x + \sin x$, $\mathfrak{d}\,x$ (see sec. \ref{['subsubsec:dimRetEcon']}), $(x^{\ln x})^{\langle-1\rangle}$, and $-0.1 x^2 + 4x$ have diminishing returns. $x^{1+1/2^x}$ has decreasing returns, and is hidden behind $f(x) = x$ for $x \gtrsim 5$.
  • Figure 2: GDP per capita, from 1820 to 2022, in 2011 international dollars. Data from bolt2023maddison, via OWiDGDPPC.
  • Figure 3: Women's political empowerment index, from 1900 to 2023. The index includes civil liberties, participation, and representation.sundstrom2017women Data from vDem. See also owidWPEI. 'MENA': Middle East and North Africa.
  • Figure 5: Homicide rates, 1525 to 2021. Legend also shows change from first to last entry, relative difference, and time span. Non-"Wrld" data are from owidHomicideLongTerm; for original sources, see owidHomicideLongTerm. Data for "Wrld" (world) are from ihme; see also owidHomicideRate. See owidHomicideDataSources too. 'CoSa': Corsica and Sardinia, 'SwFi': Sweden and Finland, 'EnWa': England and Wales. For a zoom-in on recent years, see figure \ref{['fig:homicideRecent']}.
  • Figure 6: Generational, Planckian value progression. Figure 2.5 from Christian Welzel's welzel13. (With permission.)
  • ...and 12 more figures

Theorems & Definitions (10)

  • Definition 1.1: $DR$
  • Theorem 1.2
  • proof
  • Definition E.1: $DR'$
  • Theorem E.2
  • proof
  • Definition E.3: $O^{\smallint}$, integral $O$
  • Definition E.4: $DR"$
  • Theorem E.5
  • proof