Modeling Methane Intensity of Oil and Gas Upstream Activities by Production Profile

TL;DR

This paper develops a top-down approach to quantify methane intensity in upstream oil and gas by combining satellite-derived emissions (via a full-inversion framework) with public production data, and by constructing production-profile-based benchmarks across regions. By applying the method to 42 anonymized companies, it reveals that regional footprints significantly shape modeled methane intensities and that company-reported intensities are markedly lower—on average about $16.1$× less—than the model outputs. The work highlights substantial regional and data-source-driven discrepancies in methane accounting, discusses uncertainties in satellite measurements, and argues for integrating satellite observations into regulatory and financial risk assessments to improve emissions reporting and climate-aligned decision-making.

Abstract

We propose a methodology for modelling methane intensities of Oil and Gas upstream activities for different production profiles with diverse combinations of region of operation and production volumes associated. This methodology leverages different data sources, including satellite measurements and public estimates of methane emissions but also country-level oil and gas production data and company reporting. The obtained methane intensity models are compared to the reference companies' own reporting in order to better understand methane emissions for different types of companies. The results show that regions of operation within the different production profiles have a significant impact on the value of modelled methane intensities, especially for operators located in a single or few countries, such as national and medium-sized international operators. This paper also shows that methane intensities reported by the companies tend to be on average 16.1 times smaller than that obtained using the methodology presented here, and cannot account for total methane emissions that are estimated for upstream operations in the different regions observed.

Figures (6)

• Figure 1: Distribution of model methane intensity
• Figure 2: Model methane intensity by type of company
• Figure 3: Distribution of company reported methane intensity
• Figure 4: Reported methane intensity by type of company
• Figure 5: Ratio between modeled and reported intensities by type of company