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Database for the meta-analysis of the social cost of carbon (v2026.1)

Richard S. J. Tol

TL;DR

This paper introduces the 2026 version of the database for meta-analysis of social cost of carbon (SCC) estimates, building on prior Tol-based literature and recent software efforts. It documents 528 papers across 156 journals from 1980–2025, totaling 14,884 SCC estimates, with 81 new records added in 2025 and 21 overlooked works recovered. The database adds new fields capturing gender and stochasticity, and links four satellite datasets (Bibliography, co-author network, country affiliation, and citation network) via Paper ID to support bias, representativeness, and influence analyses, all hosted on GitHub. It encodes detailed study attributes (e.g., discount rates, growth impacts, damage functions) and applies author- and quality-weighting with censoring to enable robust meta-analysis. Descriptive statistics reveal a right-skewed distribution of SCC estimates (mode $50–$75/tC, secondary mode $900–$925/tC, mean $411/tC) and illustrate substantial heterogeneity, with new studies averaging $629/tC versus $400/tC for older studies; the literature comprises 874 authors and shows notable country and network structure patterns, informing both policy relevance and reproducibility.

Abstract

A new version of the database for the meta-analysis of estimates of the social cost of carbon is presented. New records were added, and new fields on gender and stochasticity.

Database for the meta-analysis of the social cost of carbon (v2026.1)

TL;DR

This paper introduces the 2026 version of the database for meta-analysis of social cost of carbon (SCC) estimates, building on prior Tol-based literature and recent software efforts. It documents 528 papers across 156 journals from 1980–2025, totaling 14,884 SCC estimates, with 81 new records added in 2025 and 21 overlooked works recovered. The database adds new fields capturing gender and stochasticity, and links four satellite datasets (Bibliography, co-author network, country affiliation, and citation network) via Paper ID to support bias, representativeness, and influence analyses, all hosted on GitHub. It encodes detailed study attributes (e.g., discount rates, growth impacts, damage functions) and applies author- and quality-weighting with censoring to enable robust meta-analysis. Descriptive statistics reveal a right-skewed distribution of SCC estimates (mode 75/tC, secondary mode 925/tC, mean 629/tC versus $400/tC for older studies; the literature comprises 874 authors and shows notable country and network structure patterns, informing both policy relevance and reproducibility.

Abstract

A new version of the database for the meta-analysis of estimates of the social cost of carbon is presented. New records were added, and new fields on gender and stochasticity.
Paper Structure (7 sections, 8 figures)

This paper contains 7 sections, 8 figures.

Table of Contents

  1. Introduction
  2. Data
  3. Literature
  4. Main database
  5. Satellite data
  6. Descriptive statistics
  7. Conclusion

Figures (8)

  • Figure 1: The number of papers on and estimates of the social cost of carbon by year.
  • Figure 2: The histogram of published estimates of the social cost of carbon. Estimates are author- and quality-weighted and censored.
  • Figure 3: The average social cost of carbon by year of publication. The interval shown is the mean plus and minus the standard deviation. Estimates are author- and quality-weighted and censored. Both panels show the same data, but the right panel uses an abridged vertical axis.
  • Figure 4: Contribution to the literature on the social cost of carbon by author.
  • Figure 5: The number of papers on the social cost of carbon by country of affiliation.
  • ...and 3 more figures