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Finding the Best Route During the Pandemic Disease

Amirsadegh Mirgalooyebayat, Farzad Didehvar

TL;DR

A mathematical model for identifying the safest travel routes during a pandemic by minimizing disease contraction risks, such as COVID-19 is presented and demonstrates that combined pedestrian-subway-BRT routes exhibit significantly lower infection risks compared to car or bus routes.

Abstract

In this article, we try to find the best routes during the pandemic so that the probability of contracting the disease is the lowest. According to the results of this article, we can design software to find the best route.

Finding the Best Route During the Pandemic Disease

TL;DR

A mathematical model for identifying the safest travel routes during a pandemic by minimizing disease contraction risks, such as COVID-19 is presented and demonstrates that combined pedestrian-subway-BRT routes exhibit significantly lower infection risks compared to car or bus routes.

Abstract

In this article, we try to find the best routes during the pandemic so that the probability of contracting the disease is the lowest. According to the results of this article, we can design software to find the best route.
Paper Structure (32 sections, 4 theorems, 87 equations, 19 figures, 20 tables)

This paper contains 32 sections, 4 theorems, 87 equations, 19 figures, 20 tables.

Table of Contents

  1. Introduction
  2. Finding a Relationship to the Probability of contracting a Disease
  3. Choose the best route
  4. Summary, Conclusions and Suggestions

Key Result

Theorem 1

If path $n$ consists of $n-1$ paths along each other and all these paths are independent of each other and the probability of getting the disease in the $i$th path is equal to $P_i$, the probability of getting the disease in the $n$th path is equal to :

Figures (19)

  • Figure 1: Combined route
  • Figure 2: Passing a person without a disease through a $60 \times 40$ screen with 10 sick people present
  • Figure 3: The probability of catching COVID-19 in 5 hours of being in the environment according to the size of the room for low activity
  • Figure 4: The value of $k(E)$ according to the amount of activity along with the estimated linear regression model in the open environment
  • Figure 5: The value of $k(E)$ according to the amount of activity along with the estimated linear regression model in the subway wagon
  • ...and 14 more figures

Theorems & Definitions (8)

  • Theorem 1
  • proof
  • Theorem 2
  • proof
  • Theorem 3
  • proof
  • Theorem 4
  • proof