Effects of Research Paper Promotion via ArXiv and X
Chhandak Bagchi, Eric Malmi, Przemyslaw Grabowicz
TL;DR
This study analyzes how ArXiv preprints and Twitter promotion influence paper citations in computer science and physics. By integrating Semantic Scholar, ArXiv, WikiCFP, Crossref, Altmetric, and X data and employing a doubly robust TMLE framework with a super learner, the authors estimate ArXiv first, preprint revisions, and tweeting effects over a five year window. They find that ArXiv first and revisions yield sizable citation gains, with substantially larger effects in computer science than in physics, and that tweeting about papers on X markedly boosts citations in CS. The results underscore strong social influence in CS and highlight the need for robust, multidimensional impact metrics and potential postpublication peer review to moderate misinformation risks in fast moving disciplines.
Abstract
In the evolving landscape of scientific publishing, it is important to understand the drivers of high-impact research, to equip scientists with actionable strategies to enhance the reach of their work, and to understand trends in the use of modern scientific publishing tools to inform their further development. Here, we study trends in the use of early preprint publications and revisions on ArXiv and the use of X (formerly Twitter) for promotion of such papers in computer science and physics. We find that early submissions to ArXiv and promotion on X have soared in recent years. Estimating the effect that the use of each of these modern affordances has on the number of citations of scientific publications, we find that peer-reviewed conference papers in computer science that are submitted early to ArXiv gain on average $21.1 \pm 17.4$ more citations, revised on ArXiv gain $18.4 \pm 17.6$ more citations, and promoted on X gain $44.4 \pm 8$ more citations in the first 5 years from an initial publication. In contrast, journal articles in physics experience comparatively lower boosts in citation counts, with increases of $3.9 \pm 1.1$, $4.3 \pm 0.9$, and $6.9 \pm 3.5$ citations respectively for the same interventions. Our results show that promoting one's work on ArXiv or X has a large impact on the number of citations, as well as the number of influential citations computed by Semantic Scholar, and thereby on the career of researchers. These effects are present also for publications in physics, but they are relatively smaller. The larger relative effect sizes, effects of promotion accumulating over time, and elevated unpredictability of the number of citations in computer science than in physics suggest a greater role of world-of-mouth spreading in computer science than in physics.