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In the Eyes of the Bystander: Are the Stances on Different Conflicts Correlated?

Yiyao Tao, Hengyu Zhang, Babli Dey, Selenge Tulga, Hanjia Lyu, Jiebo Luo

TL;DR

This paper analyzes whether stances toward Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine among Chinese Weibo users are correlated, using a dual stance-detection pipeline (sentiment-based and transformer-based) and a chi-squared analysis to relate stance distributions. It collects roughly 200k comments, produces 4,022 cross-conflict paired entries after cleaning, and demonstrates a statistically significant association between stances on the two conflicts, with neutrality dominating and Palestine more supported than Israel. The work highlights media portrayal in official Chinese outlets as a key driver of public opinion, and shows how cross-conflict analysis can reveal intertwined opinion dynamics in the digital age. The findings have implications for policymakers and researchers, while acknowledging limitations such as data source and temporal scope and suggesting broader cross-platform expansion.

Abstract

Public opinion on international conflicts, such as the concurrent Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine crises, often reflects a society's values, beliefs, and history. These simultaneous conflicts have sparked heated global online discussions, offering a unique opportunity to explore the dynamics of public opinion in multiple international crises. This study investigates how public opinions toward one conflict might influence or relate to another, a relatively unexplored area in contemporary research. Focusing on Chinese netizens, who represent a significant online population, this study examines their perspectives, which are increasingly influential in global discourse due to China's unique cultural and political landscape. The research finds a range of opinions, including neutral stances towards both conflicts and a statistical correlation between attitudes towards each, indicating interconnected or mutually influenced viewpoints. The study also highlights the significant role of news media, particularly in China, where state policies and global politics shape conflict portrayal, in impacting public opinion.

In the Eyes of the Bystander: Are the Stances on Different Conflicts Correlated?

TL;DR

This paper analyzes whether stances toward Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine among Chinese Weibo users are correlated, using a dual stance-detection pipeline (sentiment-based and transformer-based) and a chi-squared analysis to relate stance distributions. It collects roughly 200k comments, produces 4,022 cross-conflict paired entries after cleaning, and demonstrates a statistically significant association between stances on the two conflicts, with neutrality dominating and Palestine more supported than Israel. The work highlights media portrayal in official Chinese outlets as a key driver of public opinion, and shows how cross-conflict analysis can reveal intertwined opinion dynamics in the digital age. The findings have implications for policymakers and researchers, while acknowledging limitations such as data source and temporal scope and suggesting broader cross-platform expansion.

Abstract

Public opinion on international conflicts, such as the concurrent Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine crises, often reflects a society's values, beliefs, and history. These simultaneous conflicts have sparked heated global online discussions, offering a unique opportunity to explore the dynamics of public opinion in multiple international crises. This study investigates how public opinions toward one conflict might influence or relate to another, a relatively unexplored area in contemporary research. Focusing on Chinese netizens, who represent a significant online population, this study examines their perspectives, which are increasingly influential in global discourse due to China's unique cultural and political landscape. The research finds a range of opinions, including neutral stances towards both conflicts and a statistical correlation between attitudes towards each, indicating interconnected or mutually influenced viewpoints. The study also highlights the significant role of news media, particularly in China, where state policies and global politics shape conflict portrayal, in impacting public opinion.
Paper Structure (18 sections, 8 figures, 5 tables)

This paper contains 18 sections, 8 figures, 5 tables.

Table of Contents

  1. Introduction
  2. Related Work
  3. Material and Method
  4. Data Collection
  5. Data Cleaning and Preprocessing
  6. Stance Detection
  7. Data Analysis
  8. Results
  9. Between Conflicts
  10. Mixture of Stances
  11. Our Findings
  12. Neutrality Prevalence
  13. Alignment in Stances
  14. Disparity in Support
  15. Media Influence
  16. ...and 3 more sections

Figures (8)

  • Figure 1: Stance detection process for analyzing opinions on both conflicts.
  • Figure 2: Distributions of users by the opinions towards the Russia-Ukraine and Palestine-Israel conflicts.
  • Figure 3: Percentage distribution of mixed stances towards the two conflicts.
  • Figure 4: Heatmap of user stances towards the two conflicts.
  • Figure 5: Tag cloud for Pro-Russia Weibo posts.
  • ...and 3 more figures