Expected Transaction Value Optimization for Precise Marketing in FinTech Platforms
Yunpeng Weng, Xing Tang, Liang Chen, Dugang Liu, Xiuqiang He
TL;DR
This work tackles maximizing total investment value (ETV) in FinTech mutual fund promotions under guaranteed delivery by predicting per-user, per-fund purchase amounts and allocating impressions accordingly. It introduces the EOCA framework, featuring an Entire Space Deep Probabilistic Model (ESDPM) with an Entire Space Joint (ESJ) loss that jointly models the purchase probability and post-conversion amount, and a scalable heuristic allocation (HA) strategy to handle large-scale user sets. ESJ mitigates zero-inflation and heteroscedasticity, yielding superior ETV predictions compared with MSE or ZILN, and HA achieves near-optimal allocation with far lower computational cost than exact solvers. Online A/B tests on Tencent LiCaiTong demonstrate significant gains in transaction value and delivery metrics, confirming the approach’s practical impact for revenue optimization under GD in FinTech platforms.
Abstract
FinTech platforms facilitated by digital payments are watching growth rapidly, which enable the distribution of mutual funds personalized to individual investors via mobile Apps. As the important intermediation of financial products investment, these platforms distribute thousands of mutual funds obtaining impressions under guaranteed delivery (GD) strategy required by fund companies. Driven by the profit from fund purchases of users, the platform aims to maximize each transaction amount of customers by promoting mutual funds to these investors who will be interested in. Different from the conversions in traditional advertising or e-commerce recommendations, the investment amount in each purchase varies greatly even for the same financial product, which provides a significant challenge for the promotion recommendation of mutual funds. In addition to predicting the click-through rate (CTR) or the conversion rate (CVR) as in traditional recommendations, it is essential for FinTech platforms to estimate the customers' purchase amount for each delivered fund and achieve an effective allocation of impressions based on the predicted results to optimize the total expected transaction value (ETV). In this paper, we propose an ETV optimized customer allocation framework (EOCA) that aims to maximize the total ETV of recommended funds, under the constraints of GD dealt with fund companies. To the best of our knowledge, it's the first attempt to solve the GD problem for financial product promotions based on customer purchase amount prediction. We conduct extensive experiments on large scale real-world datasets and online tests based on LiCaiTong, Tencent wealth management platform, to demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed EOCA framework.