Keep the Future Human: Why and How We Should Close the Gates to AGI and Superintelligence, and What We Should Build Instead

TL;DR

This paper argues that humanity should close the Gates to smarter-than-human AGI and superintelligence, redirecting AI progress toward Tool AI that remains under meaningful human control. It analyzes how current GPAI are scaling toward AGI, and how race dynamics among firms and nations heighten existential risk. The author proposes a concrete governance package—compute accounting, hard compute caps, enhanced liability, and tiered safety regulation—plus international collaboration to prevent uncontrollable outcomes. By reorienting toward Tool AI and reworking governance, the paper contends we can reap AI’s benefits while preserving human agency and civilization’s continuity.

Abstract

Dramatic advances in artificial intelligence over the past decade (for narrow-purpose AI) and the last several years (for general-purpose AI) have transformed AI from a niche academic field to the core business strategy of many of the world's largest companies, with hundreds of billions of dollars in annual investment in the techniques and technologies for advancing AI's capabilities. We now come to a critical juncture. As the capabilities of new AI systems begin to match and exceed those of humans across many cognitive domains, humanity must decide: how far do we go, and in what direction? This essay argues that we should keep the future human by closing the "gates" to smarter-than-human, autonomous, general-purpose AI -- sometimes called "AGI" -- and especially to the highly-superhuman version sometimes called "superintelligence." Instead, we should focus on powerful, trustworthy AI tools that can empower individuals and transformatively improve human societies' abilities to do what they do best.