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The Russian invasion of Ukraine selectively depolarized the Finnish NATO discussion

Yan Xia, Antti Gronow, Arttu Malkamäki, Tuomas Ylä-Anttila, Barbara Keller, Mikko Kivelä

Abstract

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 dramatically reshaped the European security landscape. In Finland, public opinion on NATO had long been polarized along the left-right partisan axis, but the invasion led to a rapid convergence of the opinion toward joining NATO. We investigate whether and how this depolarization took place among polarized actors on Finnish Twitter. By analyzing retweeting patterns, we find three separated user groups before the invasion: a pro-NATO, a left-wing anti-NATO, and a conspiracy-charged anti-NATO group. After the invasion, the left-wing anti-NATO group members broke out of their retweeting bubble and connected with the pro-NATO group despite their difference in partisanship, while the conspiracy-charged anti-NATO group mostly remained a separate cluster. Our content analysis reveals that the left-wing anti-NATO group and the pro-NATO group were bridged by a shared condemnation of Russia's actions and shared democratic norms, while the other anti-NATO group, mainly built around conspiracy theories and disinformation, consistently demonstrated a clear anti-NATO attitude. We show that an external threat can bridge partisan divides in issues linked to the threat, but bubbles upheld by conspiracy theories and disinformation may persist even under dramatic external threats.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine selectively depolarized the Finnish NATO discussion

Abstract

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 dramatically reshaped the European security landscape. In Finland, public opinion on NATO had long been polarized along the left-right partisan axis, but the invasion led to a rapid convergence of the opinion toward joining NATO. We investigate whether and how this depolarization took place among polarized actors on Finnish Twitter. By analyzing retweeting patterns, we find three separated user groups before the invasion: a pro-NATO, a left-wing anti-NATO, and a conspiracy-charged anti-NATO group. After the invasion, the left-wing anti-NATO group members broke out of their retweeting bubble and connected with the pro-NATO group despite their difference in partisanship, while the conspiracy-charged anti-NATO group mostly remained a separate cluster. Our content analysis reveals that the left-wing anti-NATO group and the pro-NATO group were bridged by a shared condemnation of Russia's actions and shared democratic norms, while the other anti-NATO group, mainly built around conspiracy theories and disinformation, consistently demonstrated a clear anti-NATO attitude. We show that an external threat can bridge partisan divides in issues linked to the threat, but bubbles upheld by conspiracy theories and disinformation may persist even under dramatic external threats.
Paper Structure (11 sections, 1 figure)

This paper contains 11 sections, 1 figure.

Table of Contents

  1. Introduction
  2. Data and Methods
  3. Results
  4. Discussion
  5. Appendix
  6. Acknowledgements

Figures (1)

  • Figure 1: Retweet networks and tweet stance distributions showing how the Russian invasion of Ukraine connected the left anti group to the pro group, while the conspiracy anti group persisted. Retweet networks (A)-(B) before and (C)-(D) right after the invasion of Ukraine. Node colors in (A) and (C) correspond to the three groups detected in the before network, and the statistics beside each network show the number of nodes, external retweets of the pro group, internal retweets, and the E/I ratio in each anti group. Node colors in (B) and (D) denote the party affiliation of politicians. Parties in the legend are positioned based on the mean of their candidates' attitude toward NATO in 2019, according to an election poll conducted by the Finnish Broadcasting Company (Yle). (E) Change in percentage of active users in each group. Change in distribution of stances on joining NATO among sampled tweets in the (F) pro, (G) left anti, and (H) conspiracy anti group.