Algorithm for direct sampling from conditional distributions of toric models
Shuhei Mano, Nobuki Takayama
TL;DR
This work introduces a direct sampling framework for conditional distributions of toric models through contiguity relations of $A$-hypergeometric (GKZ) functions, formulating a Markov chain on a lattice generated by $A$ (the Markov lattice). It links sampling in toric/log-linear models to decomposable graphical models via exact $A$-hypergeometric sum formulae and Pfaffian systems, and provides practical algorithms with complexity insights, plus concrete examples (univariate Poisson regressions, two-way contingency tables, and no-$l$-way interactions). The paper also derives closed-form sum formulas in known cases (e.g., Sundberg’s decomposable-graphical-model formula and Gauss hypergeometric identities) and demonstrates through implementations and benchmarks how direct sampling can outperform Metropolis-based methods in several settings. Overall, it advances exact, structure-exploiting sampling for a broad class of toric models and clarifies the computational bridge between hypergeometric function theory and statistical sampling.
Abstract
We show that contiguity relations of hypergeometric functions of several variables give a direct sampling algorithm from the conditional distribution of toric models in statistics. The algorithm is based on a Markov chain on a lattice generated by a matrix $A$. A correspondence between decomposable graphical models and $A$-hypergeometric systems is discussed. We give a sum formula of special values of $A$-hypergeometric polynomials. Some examples with implementations are presented.
