A Comparative Study of Online Disinformation and Offline Protests
Jukka Ruohonen
TL;DR
The study investigates whether online state-centric disinformation influences offline political protests across 125 countries from 2000 to 2019. Using a Bayesian time-series cross-sectional framework with random intercepts, zero-inflated Poisson models, and three model specifications, it integrates Massmob protest data, V-Dem disinformation and polarization indicators, and World Bank controls, including an European Economic Area subsample for robustness. The findings reveal a conditional online–offline link that is strongly mediated by political polarization; in the EEA, domestic and foreign government disinformation and domestic party disinformation tend to increase protest activity, while some foreign-targeted disinformation reduces it, with polarization amplifying effects. Policy-relevant results show that internet shutdowns tend to suppress protests, whereas the lack of online monitoring by governments can also correlate with lower protest counts, though interpretations are nuanced; the paper highlights measurement and generalizability limitations and calls for further research into mediation mechanisms and cross-regional differences to inform policy.
Abstract
This paper evaluates the effect of online disinformation upon offline political protests with a time series cross-sectional sample of 125 countries in a period between 2000 and 2019. The results are mixed. Based on Bayesian multi-level regression modeling, (i) there indeed is an effect between online disinformation and offline protests, but the effect is partially meditated by political polarization. The results are clearer in a sample of countries belonging to the European Economic Area. With this sample, (ii) offline protest counts increase from online disinformation disseminated by domestic governments, political parties, and politicians as well as by foreign governments. Furthermore, (iii) Internet shutdowns tend to decrease the counts, although, paradoxically, the absence of governmental online monitoring of social media tends to also decrease these. With these results, the paper contributes to the blossoming disinformation research by modeling the impact of disinformation upon offline phenomenon. The contribution is important due to the various policy measures planned or already enacted.