Picard ranks of K3 surfaces over function fields and the Hecke orbit conjecture
Davesh Maulik, Ananth N. Shankar, Yunqing Tang
TL;DR
The paper proves that for a generically ordinary non-isotrivial family of K3 surfaces over a curve in characteristic p ≥ 5, the geometric Picard rank jumps at infinitely many closed points when the generic Picard lattice discriminant is prime to p. It reframes the moduli problem in terms of GSpin Shimura varieties and analyzes special divisors Z(m) via Borcherds lifts, while controlling local contributions at supersingular points through F-crystal methods and lattice-decay arguments. These local-to-global bounds yield infinitely many intersections of a curve with special divisors, and the authors leverage this to establish the ordinary Hecke orbit conjecture for GSpin (and some unitary) Shimura varieties, proving Zariski-density of ordinary Hecke orbits. The results extend and complement previous work on Noether–Lefschetz/Lift-type phenomena, providing a robust framework for understanding Picard-jump phenomena and Hecke-orbit dynamics in positive characteristic.
Abstract
Let $\mathscr{X} \rightarrow C$ be a non-isotrivial and generically ordinary family of K3 surfaces over a proper curve $C$ in characteristic $p \geq 5$. We prove that the geometric Picard rank jumps at infinitely many closed points of $C$. More generally, suppose that we are given the canonical model of a Shimura variety $\mathcal{S}$ of orthogonal type, associated to a lattice of signature $(b,2)$ that is self-dual at $p$. We prove that any generically ordinary proper curve $C$ in $\mathcal{S}_{\overline{\mathbb{F}}_p}$ intersects special divisors of $\mathcal{S}_{\overline{\mathbb{F}}_p}$ at infinitely many points. As an application, we prove the ordinary Hecke orbit conjecture of Chai--Oort in this setting; that is, we show that ordinary points in $\mathcal{S}_{\overline{\mathbb{F}}_p}$ have Zariski-dense Hecke orbits. We also deduce the ordinary Hecke orbit conjecture for certain families of unitary Shimura varieties.
