Dynamical dark energy in light of the latest observations
Gong-Bo Zhao, Marco Raveri, Levon Pogosian, Yuting Wang, Robert G. Crittenden, Will J. Handley, Will J. Percival, Florian Beutler, Jonathan Brinkmann, Chia-Hsun Chuang, Antonio J. Cuesta, Daniel J. Eisenstein, Francisco-Shu Kitaura, Kazuya Koyama, Benjamin L'Huillier, Robert C. Nichol, Matthew M. Pieri, Sergio Rodriguez-Torres, Ashley J. Ross, Graziano Rossi, Ariel G. Sánchez, Arman Shafieloo, Jeremy L. Tinker, Rita Tojeiro, Jose A. Vazquez, Hanyu Zhang
TL;DR
This work tests whether tensions among cosmological datasets hint at dynamical dark energy. Using KL-divergence-based tension metrics and a non-parametric, correlated-prior reconstruction of the dark-energy equation of state $w(z)$, the ALL16 data favor an evolving DE that crosses $w=-1$, improving the fit by $\Delta\chi^2\approx -12$ and reaching $3.5\sigma$ significance, though Bayesian evidence remains inconclusive. The analysis reveals that only about four extra DOF in $w(z)$ are effectively constrained by data, and the tension relief persists across multiple checks, with future surveys like DESI++ expected to decisively test the DE dynamics if correct.
Abstract
A flat Friedman-Roberson-Walker universe dominated by a cosmological constant ($Λ$) and cold dark matter (CDM) has been the working model preferred by cosmologists since the discovery of cosmic acceleration. However, tensions of various degrees of significance are known to be present among existing datasets within the $Λ$CDM framework. In particular, the Lyman-$α$ forest measurement of the Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO) by the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS) prefers a smaller value of the matter density fraction $Ω_{\rm M}$ compared to the value preferred by cosmic microwave background (CMB). Also, the recently measured value of the Hubble constant, $H_0=73.24\pm1.74 \ {\rm km}\ {\rm s}^{-1} \ {\rm Mpc}^{-1}$, is $3.4σ$ higher than $66.93\pm0.62 \ {\rm km}\ {\rm s}^{-1} \ {\rm Mpc}^{-1}$ inferred from the Planck CMB data. In this work, we investigate if these tensions can be interpreted as evidence for a non-constant dynamical dark energy (DE). Using the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence to quantify the tension between datasets, we find that the tensions are relieved by an evolving DE, with the dynamical DE model preferred at a $3.5σ$ significance level based on the improvement in the fit alone. While, at present, the Bayesian evidence for the dynamical DE is insufficient to favour it over $Λ$CDM, we show that, if the current best fit DE happened to be the true model, it would be decisively detected by the upcoming DESI survey.